Nigeria Struggles to Meet OPEC Quota Despite Rising Oil Output

Nigeria’s oil production showed some improvement in 2024, yet it fell short of meeting the production quotas set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the country’s own budgetary benchmarks.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s daily average oil production, including condensates, rose by 7.38% year-on-year to 1.667 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December 2024, up from 1.552 mbpd in December 2023. However, this figure represents a decline of 1.35% from November 2024, when production was 1.69 mbpd.

Without condensates, daily production stood at 1.484 mbpd, below Nigeria’s OPEC allocation of 1.5 mbpd and far short of the 1.7 mbpd benchmark set for the 2024 budget. Over the year, production peaked at 1.8 mbpd in October 2024 but was hindered by issues such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and sabotage, leading to lower outputs in subsequent months.

Challenges Hindering Production

The persistent issues of pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and illegal refining have been major impediments to achieving higher output. Between August and December 2024, multiple incidents of oil spills caused by sabotage were reported by Shell and other International Oil Companies (IOCs). These acts not only disrupt production but also result in significant environmental damage.

“Most oil spills in the Niger Delta region are caused by crude oil theft, the sabotage of oil and gas production facilities, and illegal oil refining,” Shell noted in its latest briefing. The company revealed that in 2023, about 94% of oil spills of over 100 kilograms from its facilities were due to illegal activities.

In an effort to curb these losses, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), in collaboration with security agencies, uncovered 33 illegal crude oil connections and destroyed 72 illegal refineries between August and December 2024.

Government Optimism Amidst Challenges

Despite these setbacks, the federal government remains optimistic. Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), attributed the gradual improvement in production to regulatory reforms and stakeholder collaboration.

“With the Presidential directive to ramp up oil production to a sustainable level, the journey of transformation in our oil sector began,” Lokpobiri stated. “From a production level of 1 mbpd when we began, we have boosted output to 1.8 mbpd, inclusive of condensates, and continue to aspire for even greater heights.”

Lokpobiri highlighted achievements such as attracting foreign investments, deregulating the downstream sector, and eliminating bureaucratic bottlenecks. “We have also sustained peace across host communities through robust community engagements,” he added.

NUPRC on the Way Forward

Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of NUPRC, emphasized that regulatory reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) are beginning to yield results. “We have successfully introduced critical regulations in collaboration with industry stakeholders that operationalize the PIA and entrench regulatory clarity, predictability, and transparency,” he said.

Komolafe noted that oil production had grown from 1.2 mbpd in early 2024 to the current 1.6 mbpd. “Although we acknowledge these modest gains, this is far short of the Presidential charge to grow production to sustainable and economic levels,” he added.

A Path to Recovery?

While Nigeria has made strides in boosting production, meeting OPEC’s quotas and domestic budgetary targets remains a challenge. Persistent security threats, inadequate infrastructure, and governance issues continue to hinder the country’s ability to fully capitalize on its vast oil and gas reserves.

The government’s ongoing efforts to attract investments, improve security, and enhance regulatory frameworks could pave the way for a more robust oil sector, but achieving long-term stability and growth will require sustained action and commitment.